Contact: Allison Matthews
STARKVILLE, Miss.鈥擲tate Climatologist and 爱爱直播 Professor of Meteorology Mike Brown said he鈥檚 never wished for a tropical storm in the Magnolia State鈥攗ntil this year when the drought, in recent months and weeks, became so severe he thought rain from a tropical system might be beneficial enough to outweigh storm risks.
The ground has gotten so dry over the past months of drought, Brown said, that even a wet winter may not be enough to fully replenish depleted groundwater. The drought, which began in late July, is the driest the state has experienced since drought monitoring began over 20 years ago and is about a once-in-50-years scenario, Brown said.
With Southwest Mississippi the hardest hit, the worst of the drought extends primarily from Jackson southwest, where the lack of rain and record high late summer temperatures caused rapid deterioration of crops like soybeans and cotton. Although agricultural crops in the Delta fared well this year, Brown said rain is critically needed in large, 鈥渃atch-up鈥 amounts across the South to avoid a worsening outlook next spring. He said beyond the dried, hardened ground, impacts of the drought are creating secondary impacts, such as cattle farmers selling their herds due to hay shortages and barges on the Mississippi River lessening their loads just to float.
Fortunately, he explained the El Ni帽o weather pattern forecasted for this winter offers the South the best hope of providing badly needed precipitation.
鈥淲e are still in a serious drought, but rain last week across much of Mississippi has helped, and the forecast looks fairly promising for a couple of rain events soon, especially in the South and Southwest part of the state which needs it more than any other location,鈥 Brown said.
From his office at Mississippi State, Brown monitors the drought and updates other weather conditions through his role as state climatologist. He keeps data logged daily at . He also works closely with the 爱爱直播 Extension Service, keeping two-way communication lines open to receive from and provide information to the state鈥檚 82 counties. He explained how receiving photographs of drought conditions from farmers and other residents around the state helps him understand and convey accurate information.
鈥淚 can look at my computer and see the meteorological and hydrological conditions to understand the drought and make a pretty good guess about the impacts, but a picture is worth a thousand words. That鈥檚 so helpful to me to be able to pass that information along and try to get those counties classified properly,鈥 Brown explained. 鈥淚t鈥檚 very important that we get the drought classifications right for these farmers, who can qualify for certain programs that may help offset losses.鈥
Brown said winter could bring improved or worsening conditions.
鈥淎bout 25% of the state is going to need between 24-26 inches of rain鈥攖hat鈥檚 almost double the normal amount of expected rainfall鈥攖o replenish groundwater before spring planting. If it stays dry, it would be useless to plant,鈥 said Brown, who grew up on an Illinois farm.
Explaining further that depleted groundwater soon leads to dry wells, he added 鈥渋t could be devastating if we can鈥檛 irrigate crops in the Delta.鈥
He explained that the forecast important to Delta agriculture expands beyond the Magnolia state.
鈥淚f the Midwest doesn鈥檛 get precipitation and good snowfall this winter and a good runoff and melt into the Ohio and Mississippi rivers鈥攊f the river level stays low for the Mississippi鈥攖he aquifer in the Delta isn鈥檛 recharged. Water runs under the land through the Mississippi channel and then dips down and recharges that aquifer where farmers pull their water from in the wells. If they keep pulling water out and it鈥檚 not being put back in, pretty soon we鈥檙e going to have dry wells, have to pull those wells, and try to drill them deeper to extract that water. So, while it鈥檚 not yet a problem in the Delta, especially now that the growing season is over, if we can鈥檛 get the levels of the Mississippi River back up, it will be a problem.鈥
While a wet winter may not seem appealing most years, Brown said a sloshy, muddy winter would be a welcome relief for 2023-24.
鈥淭hings are still serious but trending in the right direction.聽It looks like El Ni帽o is sending some decent fronts our way,鈥 Brown said.
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